Ulema nüfus sayım modeli

Measurement
Orhan Çinici (2026)

Published in

Çinici, Orhan. “Hadis Tarihi Araştırmalarında Yeni Bir Demografik Yaklaşım: Ulema Nüfus Sayım Modeli”. Hitit İlahiyat Dergisi 25/1 (June 1, 2026): 454-478. https://doi.org/10.14395/hid.1873098.

Publication page ↗

Biyografi kaynakları âlimleri çoğunlukla vefat yılıyla anar; vefat yılına göre yapılan sayım ise belli bir yılda kaç âlimin hayatta olduğunu göstermez. Ulema nüfus sayım modeli her âlimi doğumundan vefatına kadar hayatta sayar ve her on yılda bir sayım yapar: o yıla kadar doğmuş ve henüz vefat etmemiş olanlar o yılın ilim nüfusudur. Kaynaklarda doğum yılı âlimlerin ancak küçük bir kısmında geçtiği için (Mısırlı Muhaddisler veri setinde 1.413 âlimin 322'si) eksik doğum yılları vefat yılından doğrusal regresyonla tahmin edilir. Hayatta olanlar yaşlarına göre dört gruba ayrılır: 0–6, 7–29, 30–60 ve 60 üstü. Sayım veritabanından her an yeniden hesaplanır; veri seti h. 600'e kadar vefat edenleri kapsadığı için son on yılların sayıları eksik kalır.

§ 01 — Measures

Veri seti: Mısırlı Muhaddisler (h. 300–600)
Âlim: 1413
Doğum yılı kaynakta: 322 (%22,8)
Eksik doğum: doğrusal regresyon (vefat → doğum)
R² (makalede bildirilen): 0.857
RMSE (makalede bildirilen, yıl): 6.7
Doğrulama: 5 katlı çapraz doğrulama
Sayım aralığı: 10 yıl
Yaş grupları: 0–6 · 7–29 · 30–60 · 60+
h. 450 sayımı: 135 âlim (23 · 46 · 26 · 40)

§ 02 — Census

Scholars alive in each decade

The columns show the scholars alive in that year by age group; the dashed line shows those who died in the same decade. Counting by year of death does not show a year’s scholarly population: 27 scholars died in AH 450–459, while 135 were alive in AH 450.

AH 300: 707 scholars alive (aged 0–6 46 · 7–29 203 · 30–60 255 · over 60 203); died in this decade 103
AH 310: 659 scholars alive (aged 0–6 50 · 7–29 177 · 30–60 258 · over 60 174); died in this decade 95
AH 320: 608 scholars alive (aged 0–6 26 · 7–29 139 · 30–60 273 · over 60 170); died in this decade 84
AH 330: 548 scholars alive (aged 0–6 17 · 7–29 106 · 30–60 261 · over 60 164); died in this decade 82
AH 340: 516 scholars alive (aged 0–6 39 · 7–29 78 · 30–60 235 · over 60 164); died in this decade 91
AH 350: 463 scholars alive (aged 0–6 23 · 7–29 88 · 30–60 169 · over 60 183); died in this decade 72
AH 360: 412 scholars alive (aged 0–6 25 · 7–29 100 · 30–60 134 · over 60 153); died in this decade 93
AH 370: 373 scholars alive (aged 0–6 38 · 7–29 86 · 30–60 126 · over 60 123); died in this decade 85
AH 380: 332 scholars alive (aged 0–6 17 · 7–29 103 · 30–60 117 · over 60 95); died in this decade 61
AH 390: 293 scholars alive (aged 0–6 10 · 7–29 91 · 30–60 129 · over 60 63); died in this decade 44
AH 400: 260 scholars alive (aged 0–6 3 · 7–29 53 · 30–60 129 · over 60 75); died in this decade 28
AH 410: 242 scholars alive (aged 0–6 5 · 7–29 31 · 30–60 123 · over 60 83); died in this decade 55
AH 420: 194 scholars alive (aged 0–6 7 · 7–29 19 · 30–60 103 · over 60 65); died in this decade 35
AH 430: 172 scholars alive (aged 0–6 8 · 7–29 21 · 30–60 58 · over 60 85); died in this decade 37
AH 440: 156 scholars alive (aged 0–6 20 · 7–29 26 · 30–60 36 · over 60 74); died in this decade 58
AH 450: 135 scholars alive (aged 0–6 23 · 7–29 46 · 30–60 26 · over 60 40); died in this decade 27
AH 460: 136 scholars alive (aged 0–6 16 · 7–29 69 · 30–60 30 · over 60 21); died in this decade 20
AH 470: 154 scholars alive (aged 0–6 24 · 7–29 72 · 30–60 47 · over 60 11); died in this decade 4
AH 480: 170 scholars alive (aged 0–6 10 · 7–29 74 · 30–60 70 · over 60 16); died in this decade 8
AH 490: 191 scholars alive (aged 0–6 16 · 7–29 68 · 30–60 86 · over 60 21); died in this decade 9
AH 500: 211 scholars alive (aged 0–6 21 · 7–29 56 · 30–60 98 · over 60 36); died in this decade 4
AH 510: 239 scholars alive (aged 0–6 22 · 7–29 67 · 30–60 89 · over 60 61); died in this decade 34
AH 520: 232 scholars alive (aged 0–6 23 · 7–29 72 · 30–60 86 · over 60 51); died in this decade 43
AH 530: 217 scholars alive (aged 0–6 16 · 7–29 79 · 30–60 78 · over 60 44); died in this decade 24
AH 540: 199 scholars alive (aged 0–6 3 · 7–29 64 · 30–60 87 · over 60 45); died in this decade 29
AH 550: 177 scholars alive (aged 0–6 5 · 7–29 34 · 30–60 96 · over 60 42); died in this decade 20
AH 560: 158 scholars alive (aged 0–6 1 · 7–29 12 · 30–60 96 · over 60 49); died in this decade 30
AH 570: 135 scholars alive (aged 0–6 1 · 7–29 9 · 30–60 70 · over 60 55); died in this decade 30
AH 580: 106 scholars alive (aged 0–6 0 · 7–29 4 · 30–60 41 · over 60 61); died in this decade 42
AH 590: 63 scholars alive (aged 0–6 0 · 7–29 1 · 30–60 13 · over 60 49); died in this decade 56

aged 0–6 aged 7–29 aged 30–60 over 60 died in that decade

The dataset covers those who died up to AH 600. Scholars who would die after that year are not counted, so the last decades are incomplete; the bands show who ruled Egypt.

§ 03 — Census table

Year	Alive	0–6	7–29	30–60	60+	Authority-weighted	Died in the decade
h. 300	707	46	203	255	203	507.25	103
h. 310	659	50	177	258	174	468.50	95
h. 320	608	26	139	273	170	450.75	84
h. 330	548	17	106	261	164	417.00	82
h. 340	516	39	78	235	164	389.00	91
h. 350	463	23	88	169	183	359.50	72
h. 360	412	25	100	134	153	309.75	93
h. 370	373	38	86	126	123	270.00	85
h. 380	332	17	103	117	95	238.50	61
h. 390	293	10	91	129	63	207.75	44
h. 400	260	3	53	129	75	199.00	28
h. 410	242	5	31	123	83	192.00	55
h. 420	194	7	19	103	65	153.50	35
h. 430	172	8	21	58	85	141.00	37
h. 440	156	20	26	36	74	119.00	58
h. 450	135	23	46	26	40	88.25	27
h. 460	136	16	69	30	21	82.00	20
h. 470	154	24	72	47	11	88.25	4
h. 480	170	10	74	70	16	108.00	8
h. 490	191	16	68	86	21	123.50	9
h. 500	211	21	56	98	36	142.75	4
h. 510	239	22	67	89	61	166.75	34
h. 520	232	23	72	86	51	157.25	43
h. 530	217	16	79	78	44	146.00	24
h. 540	199	3	64	87	45	143.00	29
h. 550	177	5	34	96	42	132.25	20
h. 560	158	1	12	96	49	127.25	30
h. 570	135	1	9	70	55	112.25	30
h. 580	106	0	4	41	61	93.75	42
h. 590	63	0	1	13	49	59.25	56
h. 600	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	10

The authority-weighted value uses the coefficients in the thesis notebook: aged 0–6 0.25 · 7–29 0.5 · 30–60 0.75 · over 60 1. The last column counts scholars who died in the same decade; this is the count by year of death.

§ 04 — Live computation

The measure is reproduced from the database

The census is recomputed from the database at all times; in 31 of the 31 counts in the thesis notebook the total and all four age groups are identical.

Regression built from the 322 scholars whose birth year is in the sources: birth = 1.0181 × death − 86.78. Editors’ corrections and record merges are reflected in the census automatically.

The atlas’s “Alive” mode and the “years alive” filter of the scholar list apply the same method to all regions; there the regression is built from the 523 published scholars whose birth and death are known. See it in the atlas →